Vantage-6
Append-onlyEvery prediction on this page was frozen the moment it was logged. Database triggers block edits and deletes, so what you see is what was claimed at the time, graded against what actually happened.
Watch an idea walk the journey →This instrument is still earning its track record: 7 of the 100 resolved predictions needed before its calibration curve means anything. Until then, treat every open prediction as an uncalibrated hypothesis. We publish anyway, because the grading has to be public to count.
Anyone can send one in. No account, no charge. It gets the same treatment as everything else on this page.
Send in an idea, a product, a service, anything. It runs through the same five gates and six dimensions BLDG Labs uses on its own work, live, k=3 model runs. If it survives, a falsifiable prediction with your idea's name on it joins the ledger above, permanently, and you'll watch it happen on the journey.
Predictions
209
frozen at log time
Resolved
7
0 unresolvable
Open
202
0 due for grading
Mean Brier
0.140
0 perfect · 0.25 coin flip
When this system says 70%, does the thing happen about 70% of the time? Forecast average vs. actual rate, per confidence band.
| Band | N | Forecast avg | Actual rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| <20% | 1 | 12% | 0% |
| 20-40% | 0 | - | - |
| 40-60% | 1 | 58% | 0% |
| 60-80% | 1 | 78% | 0% |
| >80% | 4 | 93% | 100% |
Frozen odds never move. Where monitoring has found new evidence, the current rolling estimate is shown beside the original so you can see both what was claimed and what is known now.
Owner Check Deposit Fix Sidecar for AppFolio PMs
radar · logged Aug 24, 2026 · resolves by Feb 20, 2027
Will Air Industries Group's merger with Tenax Aerospace close by November 30, 2026?
benchmark · logged Aug 24, 2026 · resolves by Dec 15, 2026
Will CRH's $150/share acquisition of Arcosa close by April 30, 2027?
benchmark · logged Aug 24, 2026 · resolves by Apr 30, 2027
Will Check-Cap's merger with MBody AI Corp close by October 15, 2026?
benchmark · logged Aug 24, 2026 · resolves by Oct 15, 2026
Will Two Harbors Investment Corp's merger with CrossCountry Mortgage close by January 31, 2027?
benchmark · logged Aug 24, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027
AppFolio Cancellation Dispute Audit Service
radar · logged Aug 23, 2026 · resolves by Feb 19, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Brookfield and NextEra Energy break ground on their planned AI data center campus at the former DOE site in Kentucky by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Aug 23, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will New York's newly enacted moratorium on permits for large data centers remain in effect through December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Aug 23, 2026 · resolves by Jan 15, 2027
Will SoundHound AI's acquisition of LivePerson close by October 15, 2026?
benchmark · logged Aug 23, 2026 · resolves by Oct 15, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will Kimberly-Clark's acquisition of Kenvue close by January 31, 2027?
benchmark · logged Aug 23, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027
COI Compliance Intake Tool for Contractors
radar · logged Aug 22, 2026 · resolves by Feb 18, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will the FDA approve IntraBio's levacetylleucine (Aqneursa) sNDA for ataxia-telangiectasia by its September 19, 2026 PDUFA date?
benchmark · logged Aug 22, 2026 · resolves by Oct 10, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will OpenAI's Project Camellia data center campus in Effingham County, Georgia achieve initial power delivery by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Aug 22, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Certified Payroll Data Assembly Assistant for Contractors
radar · logged Aug 21, 2026 · resolves by Feb 17, 2027
Will US data center construction starts spending for full-year 2026 exceed $150 billion?
benchmark · logged Aug 21, 2026 · resolves by Feb 15, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Fincantieri complete its acquisitions of Next Geosolutions, WSense, Graal Tech, and Defcomm by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Aug 21, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027
Will the FDA make a decision on Praxis Precision Medicines' relutrigine NDA by its extended December 27, 2026 PDUFA date?
benchmark · logged Aug 21, 2026 · resolves by Jan 15, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will the FDA approve Ionis' zilganersen for Alexander disease by its September 22, 2026 PDUFA date?
benchmark · logged Aug 21, 2026 · resolves by Oct 15, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Subcontractor COI Compliance Tracker for GCs
radar · logged Aug 20, 2026 · resolves by Feb 16, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Somnigroup International's ~$2.5B acquisition of Leggett & Platt close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Aug 20, 2026 · resolves by Jan 15, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Damac Digital have at least 8 of its newly broken-ground data center sites operational by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Aug 20, 2026 · resolves by Feb 28, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Market-Rate Cost Correction Layer for Xactimate Pricing Gaps Capterra reviewers
radar · logged Aug 19, 2026 · resolves by Feb 15, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Grant Thornton Advisors' $5B acquisition of CBIZ close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Aug 19, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Publicis Groupe's $2.5B acquisition of LiveRamp close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Aug 19, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Dispute-Proofing Narrative Add-On for Xactimate
radar · logged Aug 2, 2026 · resolves by Jan 29, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Element Solutions' merger with Solstice close by June 30, 2027?
benchmark · logged Aug 2, 2026 · resolves by Jul 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Salesforce's ~$3.6B acquisition of Fin (formerly Intercom) close by January 31, 2027?
benchmark · logged Aug 2, 2026 · resolves by Feb 28, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Leonardo DRS's $450M acquisition of Raft close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Aug 2, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Xactimate Estimate Build Service for Restoration Contractors
radar · logged Aug 1, 2026 · resolves by Jan 28, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will KKR's Helix Digital Infrastructure break ground on its first hyperscale data center project by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Aug 1, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will PHINIA's acquisition of the stoba Group close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Aug 1, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Electronic Arts' ~$55B take-private deal with the PIF-led consortium close by August 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Aug 1, 2026 · resolves by Sep 15, 2026 · 3 evidence items
AIA Billing Double-Entry Eliminator for Commercial Buildertrend Users Commercia
radar · logged Jul 31, 2026 · resolves by Jan 27, 2027
Will Prologis succeed in acquiring SEGRO by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 31, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will Northrim BanCorp's acquisition of PBCO Financial Corporation close by March 31, 2027?
benchmark · logged Jul 31, 2026 · resolves by Mar 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners' acquisition of Epic Energy close by March 31, 2027?
benchmark · logged Jul 31, 2026 · resolves by Mar 31, 2027
Buildertrend Estimate-to-Proposal Sync Bridge
radar · logged Jul 30, 2026 · resolves by Jan 26, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Meta begin deploying AMD Instinct MI450-based Helios rack-scale servers under the $100B AI supply deal by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 30, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Microsoft break ground on all 15 newly approved data centers at the former Foxconn site in Mount Pleasant, Wisconsin by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 30, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will EQT's combination with Coller Capital close by November 30, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 30, 2026 · resolves by Nov 30, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Freelance Takeoff-Handoff Structuring Service for GCs Outsourcing to Upwork GCs
radar · logged Jul 29, 2026 · resolves by Jan 25, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will the FDA approve the MR-100A-01 low-dose estrogen contraceptive patch by its July 30, 2026 PDUFA date?
benchmark · logged Jul 29, 2026 · resolves by Aug 30, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will TPG's acquisition of Learfield close by September 30, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 29, 2026 · resolves by Oct 31, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Thoroughness-Report Tool for Home Inspectors
radar · logged Jul 28, 2026 · resolves by Jan 24, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will OCS Group's $4.17B acquisition of Mitie close by March 31, 2027?
benchmark · logged Jul 28, 2026 · resolves by Mar 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Var Energi's $1.3B acquisition of BlueNord close by March 31, 2027?
benchmark · logged Jul 28, 2026 · resolves by Mar 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Zymeworks' acquisition of Theravance Biopharma close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 28, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Field-Capture-to-Report Pipeline for Home Inspectors
radar · logged Jul 27, 2026 · resolves by Jan 23, 2027
Will Iberdrola's $2.3B acquisition of Finnish utility Caruna close by March 31, 2027?
benchmark · logged Jul 27, 2026 · resolves by Mar 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Tempus AI's $1.5B acquisition of Personalis close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 27, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will Adobe's acquisition of Topaz Labs close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 27, 2026 · resolves by Jan 15, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Repligen's acquisition of BioLife Solutions close by January 31, 2027?
benchmark · logged Jul 27, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Defensible Narrative Report Assembler for Independent Home Inspectors Independe
radar · logged Jul 26, 2026 · resolves by Jan 22, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will UniFirst's merger with Cintas close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 26, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Boundless Bio and Serapha Bio complete their announced merger by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 26, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will ExlService Holdings' acquisition of iMerit close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 26, 2026 · resolves by Jan 15, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Manual-Workaround Audit for PM Software Stacks
radar · logged Jul 25, 2026 · resolves by Jan 21, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Banco Santander's $12.3B acquisition of Webster Financial close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 25, 2026 · resolves by Jan 15, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will French regulators approve the carve-up of SFR's assets between Bouygues, Iliad, and Orange by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 25, 2026 · resolves by Feb 1, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Paramount Skydance's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery close by September 30, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 25, 2026 · resolves by Oct 31, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will ResMed's sale of its MatrixCare software business to Frazier Healthcare Partners close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 25, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
AppFolio Document Intake Assistant for Property Managers
radar · logged Jul 24, 2026 · resolves by Jan 20, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will the FDA approve Capricor Therapeutics' Deramiocel for Duchenne muscular dystrophy by its August 22, 2026 PDUFA date?
benchmark · logged Jul 24, 2026 · resolves by Sep 15, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will the Black Hills Corporation–NorthWestern Energy merger (forming Bright Horizon Energy) close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 24, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will American Industrial Partners' acquisition of Avanos Medical close by August 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 24, 2026 · resolves by Sep 15, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will Blackstone Infrastructure Partners' acquisition of TXNM Energy close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 24, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Reconciliation Escalation Packet Builder for AppFolio Accounting Failures AppFo
radar · logged Jul 23, 2026 · resolves by Jan 19, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will the KKR-led consortium's ~$5.3B acquisition of Steadfast Group close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 23, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will First Hawaiian's acquisition of TriCo Bancshares close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 23, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Hapag-Lloyd's $4.2B acquisition of ZIM Integrated Shipping close by March 31, 2027?
benchmark · logged Jul 23, 2026 · resolves by Mar 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will NextCure and Avere Therapeutics complete their announced merger by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 23, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027
ServiceTitan Inventory Reconciliation Sidecar
radar · logged Jul 22, 2026 · resolves by Jan 18, 2027
Will construction begin on the first GE Vernova Hitachi BWRX-300 SMR under the $40B U.S.-Japan energy partnership (Tennessee/Alabama) by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 22, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will the NRC approve Holtec's Limited Work Authorization request for the SMR-300 dual-unit plant at Palisades Energy Center by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 22, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will DOE finalize a funding agreement with Holtec for its SMR-300 project at Palisades, Michigan by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 22, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Lightweight Dispatch Scheduling Tool for Field-Service SMBs
radar · logged Jul 21, 2026 · resolves by Jan 17, 2027
Will Clear Channel Outdoor's take-private merger with Mubadala Capital/TWG Global close by September 30, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 21, 2026 · resolves by Oct 31, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Human-in-Loop Dispatch Assist for Trucking
radar · logged Jul 20, 2026 · resolves by Jan 16, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will SoftBank break ground on its first French AI data center site (Dunkirk, Bosquel, or Bouchain) by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 20, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will a Wisconsin court rule on Oracle's challenge to the state's hyperscale data center financial security rule by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 20, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will Stark Power complete its acquisition of Sagebrush Infrastructure Partners by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 20, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Certified Payroll / Davis-Bacon Compliance Drafting Assistant Contractors doing
radar · logged Jul 19, 2026 · resolves by Jan 15, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Trump Media & TAE Technologies close their merger by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 19, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will AWS break ground on its $50B GovCloud/Top Secret AI infrastructure expansion by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 19, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Praxis Precision Medicines' ulixacaltamide (essential tremor) receive an FDA decision by its January 29, 2027 PDUFA date?
benchmark · logged Jul 19, 2026 · resolves by Feb 28, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Hassan Allam Digital Infrastructure break ground on its first Egyptian hyperscale data center by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 19, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Human-in-Loop OSHA Site Safety Plan & Program Assembler General contractors and
radar · logged Jul 18, 2026 · resolves by Jan 14, 2027
Will the FDA approve iberdomide (IberDd combination) for relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma by its August 17, 2026 PDUFA date?
benchmark · logged Jul 18, 2026 · resolves by Sep 15, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will the EGH/Hecate Energy $1.2B SPAC combination close by September 30, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 18, 2026 · resolves by Oct 15, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will the FDA approve Moderna's mRNA-1010 seasonal flu vaccine for adults 50+ by its August 5, 2026 PDUFA date?
benchmark · logged Jul 18, 2026 · resolves by Sep 15, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will the FDA approve the bictegravir/lenacapavir single-tablet HIV combination regimen by its August 27, 2026 PDUFA date?
benchmark · logged Jul 18, 2026 · resolves by Sep 30, 2026 · 3 evidence items
ISO 45001 Documentation Drafting Aid for Contractors
radar · logged Jul 17, 2026 · resolves by Jan 13, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Vertex Pharmaceuticals' $10B acquisition of Crinetics Pharmaceuticals close by September 30, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 17, 2026 · resolves by Oct 31, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will Altaris' $375M acquisition of Simulations Plus close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 17, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will Lockheed Martin's $3.45B acquisition of Ultra Maritime Solutions close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 17, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will Telefonica Brasil (Vivo) complete its merger with FiBrasil effective August 1, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 17, 2026 · resolves by Aug 31, 2026
Supplement-Ready Documentation Packager for Restoration Contractors
radar · logged Jul 16, 2026 · resolves by Jan 12, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Payoneer shareholders vote to approve the Nuvei acquisition by September 30, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 16, 2026 · resolves by Oct 31, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will Nigeria's Kasi Cloud data center model expand or will Kenya's suspended $1B Microsoft data center resume construction by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 16, 2026 · resolves by Jan 15, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Intel launch its Crescent Island AI data center GPU by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 16, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Human-in-Loop Xactimate Estimate Assembly Assistant for Restoration Contractors
radar · logged Jul 15, 2026 · resolves by Jan 11, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Somnigroup's all-stock acquisition of Leggett & Platt close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 15, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will KORE Group Holdings' ~$726M acquisition by Searchlight/Abry close by September 30, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 15, 2026 · resolves by Sep 30, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will the FDA approve Praxis Precision Medicines' relutrigine (SCN2A/SCN8A DEEs) by its December 27, 2026 PDUFA date?
benchmark · logged Jul 15, 2026 · resolves by Jan 15, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Isabella Bank Corporation's acquisition of Grand River Commerce close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 15, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027
AI Report-Drafting Assistant for Home Inspectors
radar · logged Jul 14, 2026 · resolves by Jan 10, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Equifax's acquisition of Círculo de Crédito close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 14, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Olin Corporation's $4.27B acquisition of Huntsman Corporation close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 14, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Kroger's acquisition of Giant Eagle close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 14, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Novartis' acquisition of Myricx Bio close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 14, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027
Fire Alarm SLD & NFPA Documentation Drafting Aid
radar · logged Jul 13, 2026 · resolves by Jan 9, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Equity Residential's $34.91B all-stock acquisition of AvalonBay Communities close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 13, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will GSK's $10.6B acquisition of Nuvalent close by October 15, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 13, 2026 · resolves by Oct 15, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will Caesars Entertainment's $17.6B acquisition by Fertitta Entertainment close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 13, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Fox Corporation's $22B acquisition of Roku close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 13, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027
Human-in-Loop Compliance Letter & Correction Doc Assembler Freelance PE-adjacen
radar · logged Jul 12, 2026 · resolves by Jan 8, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Nigeria's NUPRC launch the 2026 oil licensing round by September 30, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 12, 2026 · resolves by Oct 31, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will DOE execute final financing documents for its $17.5 billion conditional nuclear reactor component loan by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 12, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will DOE announce award recipients for the SPARK transmission modernization program by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 12, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will the U.S. Army's leased critical minerals processing facility at Anniston Army Depot (Titan Mining graphite) begin construction by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 12, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027
Trade-Specific Estimating Assist for Electrical/MEP Subs Bridging Procore Gaps
radar · logged Jul 11, 2026 · resolves by Jan 7, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will the FDA approve ropeginterferon alfa-2b-njft (BESREMi) for essential thrombocythemia by its August 30, 2026 PDUFA date?
benchmark · logged Jul 11, 2026 · resolves by Sep 15, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will Union Pacific terminate its proposed merger with Norfolk Southern by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 11, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Procore Bid-Leveling & Reporting Bolt-On
radar · logged Jul 10, 2026 · resolves by Jan 6, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will the Surface Transportation Board accept the Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern merger application as complete following the July 27, 2026 supplemental information deadline?
benchmark · logged Jul 10, 2026 · resolves by Oct 31, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will the FDA approve BioArctic/Eisai's Leqembi Iqlik (lecanemab-irmb) subcutaneous auto-injector by its August 24, 2026 PDUFA date?
benchmark · logged Jul 10, 2026 · resolves by Sep 20, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will Merck KGaA's acquisition of Bio-Techne's life science business close by September 30, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 10, 2026 · resolves by Oct 15, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Estimating-Assist Service Undercutting Upwork Estimators
radar · logged Jul 9, 2026 · resolves by Jan 5, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Charter's $34.5B acquisition of Cox Communications close by September 15, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 9, 2026 · resolves by Sep 30, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will Lotus Technology's acquisition of Lotus UK close in 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 9, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will the FDA approve Nuvalent's zidesamtinib for ROS1-positive NSCLC by its September 18, 2026 PDUFA date?
benchmark · logged Jul 9, 2026 · resolves by Oct 15, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will the FDA make a decision on the investigational contraceptive weekly patch (MR-100A-01) by its July 30, 2026 PDUFA date?
benchmark · logged Jul 9, 2026 · resolves by Aug 20, 2026 · 3 evidence items
The FDA approved MR-100A-01 (norelgestromin/ethinyl estradiol transdermal system), branded as Gwyn Lo, on July 29, 2026 — one day before the July 30, 2026 PDUFA target action date. Multiple sources confirm: Contemporary OB/GYN reported "On July 29, 2026, the FDA approved norelgestromin and ethinyl estradiol transdermal system (Gwyn Lo; Viatris Inc.) as a once-weekly combined hormonal contraceptive (CHC) patch." Healio and Drugs.com also confirm the July 29, 2026 approval date, and Viatris issued a press release titled "Viatris Receives U.S. FDA Approval for Gwyn Lo™, a Once-Weekly Contraceptive Patch. source
Document & Lease Lifecycle Assistant for AppFolio-Using PM Companies Property m
radar · logged Jul 8, 2026 · resolves by Jan 4, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Inseego's acquisition of Nokia's Fixed Wireless Access business close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 8, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will Qualcomm's acquisition of Modular close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 8, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will the FDA approve zanidatamab (Ziihera) for first-line HER2+ gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma by its August 25, 2026 PDUFA date?
benchmark · logged Jul 8, 2026 · resolves by Sep 15, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will TransAlta's acquisition of two Denver-area natural gas peaking facilities close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 8, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026
AppFolio Missing-Features Gap-Filler: Custom Reporting Layer G2 reviews show 14
radar · logged Jul 7, 2026 · resolves by Jan 3, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will EQT's $3.2B combination with Coller Capital close by September 30, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 7, 2026 · resolves by Oct 31, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will Baker Hughes' acquisition of Chart Industries close by September 30, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 7, 2026 · resolves by Oct 31, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will McCormick's $44.8B acquisition of Unilever's foods business close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 7, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Reconciliation Watchdog for AppFolio Sync Failures
radar · logged Jul 6, 2026 · resolves by Jan 2, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will SpaceX's $60B acquisition of Anysphere (Cursor) close by September 30, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 6, 2026 · resolves by Oct 31, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will UK Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy issue a formal intervention notice on the Paramount-WBD merger by July 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 6, 2026 · resolves by Aug 15, 2026 · 3 evidence items
As of late July 2026, Nandy had not issued a formal intervention notice. UK Parliament went into summer recess without an update, and Deadline reported (citing sources) that "Nandy, who has already said she is 'minded to intervene,' will not deliver her decision until September 1 at the earliest" since government updates on this quasi-judicial process must first go to Parliament, which returns from recess Sept 1. Thus by July 31, 2026, no formal intervention notice had been issued, and no decision had been made either way. source
Will the Antora Energy thermal storage facility in Big Stone City, South Dakota be fully online by October 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 6, 2026 · resolves by Nov 30, 2026 · 2 evidence items
Reactive-to-Planned Maintenance Triage Assistant for Property Management Work Or
radar · logged Jul 5, 2026 · resolves by Jan 1, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will the Ninth Circuit rule on Nexstar's appeal of the Tegna merger injunction by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 5, 2026 · resolves by Jan 15, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will the FDA make a decision on rivoceranib plus camrelizumab for hepatocellular carcinoma by its July 23, 2026 PDUFA date?
benchmark · logged Jul 5, 2026 · resolves by Aug 15, 2026 · 3 evidence items
FDA issued a Complete Response Letter (CRL) on July 10, 2026 — ahead of the July 23, 2026 PDUFA date — for the rivoceranib/camrelizumab combination NDA/BLA for first-line unresectable/metastatic HCC. Per Elevar Therapeutics' press release (elevartx.com/2026/07/10/elevar-crl-july-2/ and GlobeNewswire), the CRL was related to deficiencies identified during a cGMP inspection of a manufacturing site listed on the Rivoceranib NDA. This constitutes a formal FDA decision issued well within the August 15, 2026 recipe deadline. source
Will the Bitcoin Standard Treasury (BSTR) - Cantor Equity Partners I SPAC merger close by July 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 5, 2026 · resolves by Aug 15, 2026 · 3 evidence items
On July 8, 2026, BSTR CEO Adam Back announced the cancellation of the original SPAC business combination agreement with Cantor Equity Partners I. Per KuCoin and CryptoBriefing reporting: "The Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company has canceled its planned business combination with Cantor Equity Partners I" and "the CEPO shareholder meeting has been postponed indefinitely, and the private placements tied to the original deal will not proceed." Both parties indicated they were negotiating a restructured deal with different terms, but as of the July 31, 2026 deadline, no merger had closed and BSTR shares had not begun trading on Nasdaq under this agreement. Therefore the merger did not close by July 31, 2026 (in fact it was terminated). source
Storm Radius: storm-footprint reactivation of a roofer's own book (BLDG Capture extension)
inner · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Jul 4, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Automated cost-to-complete / claims exposure re-forecast
inner · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Vetted two-sided sub-matching / bench service
inner · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026
AI-drafted cited delay-claim notice generator
inner · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Live buyout call to signed contract exhibit
inner · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026
Flooring material order reconciliation
inner · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026
Landscaping plant substitution & warranty tracker
inner · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026
Glazing field measurement to order variance log
inner · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026
Steel shop drawing & RFI status tracker
inner · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026
Excavation haul/disposal ticket reconciliation
inner · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026
Fire protection NFPA-formatted report generator
inner · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026
Masonry cold-weather pour condition log
inner · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026
Roofing warranty & inspection documentation assembler
inner · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026
Painting certified payroll auto-formatter
inner · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026
Drywall photo-to-punch-list tool
inner · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026
Framing change order ticket generator
inner · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026
Concrete pour log + cylinder break test tracker
inner · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026
HVAC equipment submittal + O&M manual assembler
inner · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026
Plumbing material lead-time / expediting tracker
inner · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026
Electrical submittal package auto-builder
inner · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026
GC RFI/submittal auto-tracker (no-APM GC)
inner · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026
Vendor COI Compliance Tracker for Property Managers
radar · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026
Will Danone's Fort Worth yogurt production facility expansion be completed by October 1, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Nov 1, 2026
Will SpaceX successfully launch Starship Flight 13 by September 30, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Sep 30, 2026
Will the Buchanan Street Overpass (I-41 Expansion Project, Wisconsin) open to traffic by August 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Sep 15, 2026
Benchmarking & Filing Confirmation Tracker for LL84/FISP-style Regulatory Deadli
radar · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Bid-Ready Structured Procurement Formatter for Contractor RFPs Government and e
radar · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Rotating-chef regional hot sauce subscription box
public · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Rare houseplant subscription box for collectors
public · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Cost-guardrail bolt-on for contractor AI agents
radar · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026
Will DigitalBridge's acquisition by SoftBank close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026
Will Kimberly-Clark's acquisition of Kenvue close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026
Will Lotus Technology's acquisition of Lotus UK close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026
Self-Compacting Context Layer Retrofit for Agent Costs
radar · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will Tesla's Optimus Gen 3 production line at Fremont reach active production output by August 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Sep 15, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will Texas Instruments' new $11B Lehi, Utah semiconductor fab begin production in 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Boston Scientific's $14.5B acquisition of Penumbra close by December 31, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Jan 31, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Production-Readiness Audit for Contractor-Facing Agent Tools Enterprise CIOs no
radar · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will the Warner Bros. Discovery / Paramount Skydance merger close by September 30, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Oct 15, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will Avanos Medical's acquisition by American Industrial Partners close by July 27, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Aug 15, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Press release confirms closing: "NEW YORK and ALPHARETTA, Ga., July 27, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- American Industrial Partners ("AIP")... today announced the closing of the acquisition of Avanos Medical, Inc." The deal closed on July 27, 2026, at $25.00/share in cash (~$1.272B transaction), with Avanos becoming a private company and delisting from NYSE. This is corroborated by multiple sources including PRNewswire, StockTitan, and The Globe and Mail. source
Will Grand Theft Auto 6 release on November 19, 2026 without a further delay?
benchmark · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Nov 30, 2026 · 3 evidence items
GoHighLevel voice-chatbot reseller for local biz sites
public · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Compute-Cost Triage for Human-in-Loop Agent Workflows Builder communities are c
radar · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will Samsung's Taylor, Texas semiconductor fab open in 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Jan 15, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Will Apple announce an iPhone Fold at its September 2026 event?
benchmark · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Nov 1, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will the UK FCA motor finance redress scheme tribunal issue its ruling by November 30, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 15, 2026
A scheduling tool for HVAC contractors that auto-sequences same-day service call
public · logged Jul 4, 2026 · resolves by Dec 31, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Agent Audit Trail & Governance Log for Contractor Estimating/Proposal AI Contra
radar · logged Jul 3, 2026 · resolves by Dec 30, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Will the $55B PIF/Silver Lake/Affinity Partners buyout of Electronic Arts close by September 30, 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 3, 2026 · resolves by Oct 15, 2026
Will the FDA approve gedatolisib (Celcuity) by its PDUFA date?
benchmark · logged Jul 3, 2026 · resolves by Aug 15, 2026 · 3 evidence items
The FDA's official approvals page confirms: "On July 14, 2026, the Food and Drug Administration approved gedatolisib (Revtorpyk, Celcuity Inc.) in combination with fulvestrant, with or without palbociclib, for adults with hormone receptor (HR)-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer." This was three days before the July 17, 2026 PDUFA date, and Celcuity's own investor press release (July 14, 2026) confirms full FDA approval of REVTORPYK (gedatolisib). Both FDA.gov and Celcuity IR corroborate the approval occurred before the PDUFA date, well within the July 31, 2026 resolution window. source
Will US federal banking agencies finalize GENIUS Act stablecoin rules by the July 18, 2026 deadline?
benchmark · logged Jul 3, 2026 · resolves by Aug 15, 2026
Multiple reputable sources confirm federal banking agencies missed the July 18, 2026 deadline. The Block reported that the Treasury Department and four primary federal stablecoin regulators reached the GENIUS Act's July 18 rulemaking deadline without a final set of implementing regulations, with comments on a joint customer identification rule remaining open until Aug. 21 and an FDIC anti-money laundering proposal open until Aug. 4. Crowdfund Insider similarly confirmed that federal banking and financial regulators have allowed the statutory one-year period for completing implementing regulations to lapse without delivering finalized rules. Only proposed rules (NPRMs) from OCC, FDIC, NCUA, Treasury, FinCEN, and OFAC existed; the Federal Reserve had not even published its own primary framework. The law's effective date remains Jan 18, 2027 (or 120 days after final rules), unaffected by the missed rulemaking deadline. source
Will the FDA approve Moderna's mRNA-1010 seasonal flu vaccine by early August 2026?
benchmark · logged Jul 3, 2026 · resolves by Sep 15, 2026
Operational Memory Layer for BLDG's Agent Stack
radar · logged Jul 3, 2026 · resolves by Dec 30, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Structured-Format Intake Fixer for Contractor RFPs/Bid Packages Procurement/RFP
radar · logged Jul 3, 2026 · resolves by Dec 30, 2026 · 3 evidence items
Public AI idea-scoring tool with paid Dossier
inner · logged Jul 3, 2026 · resolves by Dec 30, 2026 · 3 evidence items
GC/Sub matchmaking network (BuildingConnected competitor)
inner · logged Jul 3, 2026 · resolves by Dec 30, 2026 · 6 evidence items
Change-order capture (demand validation)
inner · logged Jul 3, 2026 · resolves by Jul 3, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Contractor AI receptionist (KILLED)
inner · logged Jul 3, 2026 · resolves by Jul 3, 2027 · 3 evidence items
GC-sub change-order exchange
inner · logged Jul 3, 2026 · resolves by Jul 3, 2027 · 3 evidence items
Change-order capture (single-player)
inner · logged Jul 3, 2026 · resolves by Jul 3, 2027 · 3 evidence items
VANTAGE-6 is the prediction instrument BLDG Labs uses on its own ideas before committing to them. Predictions are scored by an ensemble of independent model runs, frozen into an append-only database, monitored daily for new evidence, and graded against pre-registered resolution criteria when their date comes due.